Tag Archives: snp

Bookmarks for May 23rd through May 24th

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These are my links for May 23rd through May 24th:

Lothians Results for #sp11

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A historic result for this election, an incredible night for the SNP, taking an overall majority which was supposed to be impossible.  A disastrous night for Labour and the Liberal Democrats and disappointment for the Greens who stuck on 2 seats (2 regions to be declared).

In the Linlithgow constituency, SNP candidate Fiona Hyslop was returned 49.8% of the vote, a massive increase of 10.8%

Name Party Votes % +/-%
Fiona Hyslop SNP 17,027 49.8 +10.8
Mary Mulligan Labour 12,936 37.8 -2
Christopher Donnelly Conservative 2,646 7.7 -2.9
Jennifer Lang Liberal Democrat 1,015 3 -4.6
Mike Coyle National Front 558 1.6 +1.6
Turnout 34,182 52.5
Majority 4,091 12

In Almond Valley, Angela Constance turned a micro majority into a huge majority of 5542.

Name Party Votes % +/-%
Angela Constance SNP 16,704 54.3 +14.6
Lawrence Fitzpatrick Labour 11,162 36.3 -3.4
Andrew Robert Hardie Conservative 1,886 6.1 -1.9
Emma Sykes Liberal Democrat 656 2.1 -4.2
Neil McIvor National Front 329 1.1 +1.1
Turnout 30,737 51.1
Majority 5,542 18

In the Lothian Region, 3 Labour members were returned (Sarah Boyack, Kezia Dugdale & Neil Findlay) 2 Conservatives (David William McLetchie & Gavin Brown), Green (Alison Johnstone) and Independent, Margo MacDonald

Party Member Seats Votes % +/-%
Labour Sarah Boyack, Kezia Dugdale & Neil Findlay 3%E Labour 11,162 36.3 -3.4
Andrew Robert Hardie Conservative 1,886 6.1 -1.9
Emma Sykes Liberal Democrat 656 2.1 -4.2
Neil McIvor National Front 329 1.1 +1.1
Turnout 30,737 51.1
Majority 5,542 18

In the Lothian Region, 3 Labour members were returned (Sarah Boyack, Kezia Dugdale & Neil Findlay) 2 Conservatives (David William McLetchie & Gavin Brown), Green (Alison Johnstone) and Independent, Margo MacDonald

Party Member Seats Votes % +/-%
Labour Sarah Boyack, Kezia Dugdale & Neil Findlay 3 70,544 24.9 -1.3
Conservative David William McLetchie & Gavin Brown 2 33,019 11.7 -1.5
Green Alison Johnstone 1 21,505 7.6 +0.5
Independent – MacDonald Margo MacDonald 1 18,732 6.6 0
SNP None 0 110,953 39.2 +12.7
Liberal Democrat None 0 15,588 5.5 -7.3

All the West Lothian region results can be found on the West Lothian Council website.

Election Leaflets

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Over the course of the last few months, I’m sure we’ve all recently a few trees worth of election leaflets. For your entertainment (or otherwise) here is a Flickr slideshow of most of the leaflets I’ve received.

Note that I’ve had leaflets from SNP to Labour, Independents to Tory but nothing from the Liberal Democrats. Why haste thou forsaken us?

Linlithgow Constituency Preview

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The Linlithgow constituency promises to be a very tight battle between the incumbent Labour MSP Mary Mulligan and the challenger, SNP Lothian Region MSP Fiona Hyslop.  Playing bit parts this time are Conservative and LibDem candidates, Chris Donnelly and Jenni Lang.  There is also the frankly repugnant option of the National Front.

In the Linlithgow constituency at the last election, Mary Mulligan had a majority of 1160, but boundary changes have reduced that to just 294.  The seat is the number 2 SNP target and requires a swing from Labour to 0.4372%

The current poll results say the swing to the SNP is much greater than that and if you believe the polls, Fiona Hyslop will be coasting home.  We’ll see if the polls are much closer to reality this time.

Judging by the activity in my <street>, you’d think this was the safest seat in the country. But Labour have sent in multiple leaflets, trying to imply that daughters of East Renfrewshire Labour councillors live in my street and will be voting Labour.  Not likely.

Tomorrow, I’ll give a summary of the Lothian regions where the 2nd vote will go, give a short view on the AV referendum that is also on the same day.  I sent the candidates some questions that would help me decide who to vote for and will let you know the candidate’s responses (if they reply) and then on Election Day, I’ll actually say who I will vote for as at this stage I’m still not sure.

Linlithgow Candidate Profile: Fiona Hyslop

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Fiona Hyslop is the SNP Candidate for the Linlithgow Constituency and is a current MSP selected on the Lothians List since 1999.

Fiona was the Minister for Culture and External Affairs in the SNP government.  Prior to this she was the Cabinet Secretary for Education and Life-Long Learning.

Due to the boundary changes, Hyslop is just (a notional) 294 votes behind the current MSP for Linlithgow, Mary Mulligan.

Whilst being a minister in the government will aid Hyslop in terms of recognition, her move from Education to Culture was effectively a demotion after “after a welter of bad publicity over her handling of her portfolio.”

Regards to voting, Hyslop has been rebellious a total of 31 times since 1999, but just once in this current government, and had an attendance record of 98.5% in this parliament.  You can see a list of Fiona Hyslop’s speeches in parliament at TheyWorkForYou.

Fiona’s website is uptodate with a blog, and you can follow her on Twitter.

 

Newsnight Leaders Interviews, Series 2 No.4: Alex Salmond

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The final newsnicht leaders interview is with Alex Salmond (so I’ll also include the Patrick Harvie mini-interview from the other day for completeness later)

Not only was this the last of the interviews, it was the poorest. If Gordon Brewer doesn’t feel like he has something to attack it seems like he can’t interview at all. Brewer was never going to have the same easy targets to find like he did with Tavish Scott, Annabel Goldie, or Iain Gray and was left floundering on the independence referendum and the idea that voting SNP gave David Cameron an easy time.

Any questions on policy were left to the final couple of minutes and there wasn’t enough time to question Salmond’s answers.

New poll predicts SNP will take Linlithgow and Almond Valley

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A new poll published in the Scotland on Sunday came out today showing a lead for the SNP

the SNP’s constituency vote stays the same at 40 per cent, Labour drop two to 37 per cent, the Tories hold steady on 11 per cent, while the Lib Dems pick up three points to 8 per cent. On the regional list, the SNP climb three points to 35 per cent, while Labour fall by six points to 33 per cent, The Tories stay on 12 per cent, the LibDems gain 2 points to 7 per cent, while the Greens are on 6 per cent.

Jeff from Better Nation ran these figures through his prediction calculator and thinks that both local constituencies, Linlithgow and Almond Valley will fall to the SNP now (on previous polls he had them as Labour seats)

Key FPTP wins for the SNP would include: Aberdeen Central (maj of 829 over Labour), Almond Valley (maj of 664 over Labour), Ayr (maj of 129 over Labour), Cunninghame North (maj of 572 over Labour), Edinburgh Pentlands (maj of 340 over Labour), Glasgow Southside (maj of 453 over Labour), Linlithgow (maj of 413 over Labour) and Stirling (maj of 150 over Labour)

Suitably Despairing’s Green Guide to Manifestos in #sp11

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I did plan to go through each of the Manifestos with a fine tooth comb looking for Green commitments, but the excellent Suitably Despairing has already done the job for me.  I’ll just give links to each below and summarize the key points from each.

Scottish Conservatives

Transport projects based on economic benefit with the Forth Crossing the top priority, wanting to stretch rail to breaking point, and breakup the ferry services. Anti-localisation and with no commitment to reduce carbon emissions except for the unproven Carbon Capture technology and the dangerous and expensive nuclear “industry”.

UKIP

UKIP don’t believe in climate change.  I don’t believe UKIP will ever have a say in Scottish Government so that’s okay then.

Scottish Liberal Democrats

Commitment to biomass power plants (but they oppose the one in Leith). Setting a target of Scotland to generate the equivalent of 100 per cent of Scotland’s electricity consumption from renewable sources by 2025 (not, not energy).  No new nuclear power plants, hoping to work with the UK government on transmission charges, a Scotland wide transport smart card. I see conflict with public transport commitments and the desire to build more roads and bridges.  A program for insulation (details lacking), a strategy for on-street recycling across the country.

Scottish Labour Party

Any application for a new nuclear power station will be considered, any replacement coal power station will have to have the imaginary carbon capture technology, a target of 10,000 electric car charging points, a “zero waste” Scotland.  Pledging to reduce the tax on fuel for rural areas – would be better to invest the money from that tax and better and cheaper public transport.

Scottish Socialist Party

Free bus, rail, underground and ferry travel.  A bold challenge but incredible expensive. A system of ferry pricing based on the Road Equivalent Tariff.  (Selfishly I’d like this, but can it be extended to trips to Ireland?).  A national strategy on cycling and training for children in P6/7 (which already exists).  No new nuclear and plan to decommission existing ones. A ban on GM foods.

Scottish National Party

Scotland will produce 100% of its usage of electricity by 2020 from renewables, exporting excess, a Futures Generation Fund for the renewables wealth, carbon capture (coming shortly after cold fusion nuclear power I believe). £50 million towards home insulation, funding for a Climate Challenge Fund, and a young Climate Challenge Fund.  All good stuff.  But a giant new bridge casts a shadow over it somewhat.

(Aside: you can tell the SNP have considerable more money available; and get social networking)

That is just a brief summary of the points in the manifesto’s and you should click through to @cowrin’s posts to get the full details (and extra commentary)

UPDATE (19th April) : The Scottish Green Party manifesto is now out and Suitably Desparing reviewed it here :-  #Sp11 Manifestos: Scottish Green Party

The review is, as expected very positive with the only negative being the storage of nuclear waste.  Briefly, no large biomass, universal home insulation, developing plans for the “supergrid”, 100% renewable electric by 2020, no nuclear, no coal, cycle hire schemes (yes! big win), extra public transport infrastructure investment, peatland restoration, an increase in native woodland cover to 40% by 2050.

Livingston Constituency Results 2007

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Following on from my post on the Linlithgow 2007 results, I’m looking at the sister constituency of Livingston.  In the upcoming election the boundaries have changed and there is a new name, the beautifying Almond Valley.

The interesting point about the 2007 vote was an independent, Ernie Walker, campaigning to save the services at St. John’s Hospital.  Here are the results of the constituency vote in 2007 :-
Here are the constituency results :-

Angela Constance, SNP 13,159
Bristow Muldoon, Labour 12,289
Ernie Walker, Independent 2,814
David Brown, Conservative 2,804
Evan Bell, Liberal Democrats 2,158
Majority 870

Here are the regional voting results (click to enlarge) :-

As in Linlithgow, the most faithful voters are the SNP.  82% of those that voted for Angela Constance followed up with a vote for the SNP on the Regional List.  Apart from the independent voters, again the Liberal Democrat voters were most split with only 63% staying with the LibDem.  10% gave their vote to the Green Party.

The Greens polled 3% of the list vote in total, whilst Margo MacDonald polled 4.5%.  Margo picked up most of her votes from SNP Constituency votes (29%) but it was pretty even from all the parties.  The Greens picked up a quarter of their votes from the SNP and Labour.  As in Linlithgow, the LibDems were twice as likely to vote Green than Margo.

Linlithgow Constituency 2007 Results

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The wonderful @PeatWorrier posted a link to a positive data bomb of election results which you can download yourself at http://www.scotlandoffice.gov.uk/scotlandoffice/files/updatedversionJune08.xls

The detail is quite extraordinary. Not only has a constituency breakdown for regional and consituency votes, it has a box by box count of votes per party, the boxes linked to the postal district. It also gives an incredible useful Cross Paper Combination of Regional Candidate by Constituency candidate so you can see how many SNP voters, for example, voted for Liberal Democrat, or Green or even Labour in their second vote.

So detailed is it, that I know that for my postal district that the SNP outvoted Labour, the Conservatives outvotes Liberal Democrats, and Margo polled better than the Greens.

My constituency is Linlithgow in the Lothians region. The boundaries have changed for 2011, but it ranges from Whitburn in the south, Winchburgh in the east and Linlithgow in the north.

Here are the constituency results :-

Mary Mulligan, Scottish Labour Party 12,725
Fiona Hyslop, Scottish National Party 11,565
Donald Cameron, Scottish Conservatives 3,125
Martin Oliver, Scottish Liberal Democrats 2,232
Majority 1160

Now look at the Regional Vote by Constituency Candidate (click to enlarge) :-

The most faithful votes are from the SNP where 78% of people who voted for Fiona Hyslop voted SNP on the regional list. The least faithful are Martin Oliver’s voters, only 55% of voters for Martin Oliver voted LibDem on the list. Not called Liberal for nothing.

Unsurprisingly perhaps, the biggest gainer of votes from the constituency candidates was the Independent, Margo MacDonald. She picked up nearly 5% of the list vote in the Linlithgow constituency. After their own Party, Conservative, Labour and SNP constituency voters were mostly likely to vote for Margo.

The exception was the Liberal Democrats who were more like to vote Green (13.9%) than Margo (8.1%). This might actually be Green voters voting LibDem because they didn’t have a choice of voting Green. The Green vote was actually very evenly split between Labour, SNP and the Liberal Democrats (310,307,310).

There are few other surprises. Both BNP (of which there were 490 in the constituency) and UKIP voters where more likely to vote Conservative and Socialist voters were not likely to vote Labour; 3 times more voted SNP and indeed, just as many voted LibDem.